Jun 05 2010
Belmont Stakes 142
The final leg of the 2010 Triple Crown is finally here, as a field of 12 will go postward in the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes. Much like the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont (on paper at least) sets up perfectly for one horse, who of course also isn’t really the best horse in the field. In the Derby the race set up perfectly for Ice Box, who really wasn’t the best horse in the race. That honor went to Lookin at Lucky, who went on to win the Preakness.
So what does that mean for today? For me, it means trust your instincts and take the horse that the race sets up for. Ice Box nearly won the Derby, and but for a bad trip probably does.
First Dude - The only real speed in the field which makes him very dangerous today. He nearly took the Preakness field wire-to-wire, and despite looking done at the 3/16th’s pole, he was very game to the wire against what I believe is the best 3YO in training (Lookin at Lucky). He’s going to be far more attractive on the tote board than the likely favorite (Ice Box) which is another reason to like him. No question it was a tough race, and the only knock might be that it took too much out of him. He’s reportedly been doing well leading up to the race, and I think Romans was smart to get him to Belmont early, so I think he’ll run big again today.
Ice Box - My real ‘top choice’ in the Derby because I thought the race set up perfectly for him. I played him straight and in most of my exotic tickets. Rewarded me handsomely despite a bad trip relegating him to the place position. I think he’s probably the best horse in the Belmont, and he will likely be bet like it. No question the extra time off helps his chances, and he will be rolling late. He does need someone to challenge First Dude early, and if he gets someone to do it, he will be hard to beat.
Drosselmeyer - I’m taking a little bit of a flyer here, but am intrigued by the reuniting of one of the top teams in the history of New York racing, trainer Bill Mott and jockey Mike Smith. He was the overwhelming favorite in the Dwyer (the local prep) but finished second to Fly Down. He was in tight quarters with 3/8ths to go, and not sure he could have gotten to the winner after breaking poorly too. Desormeaux has had a bit of a rough go recently in terms of his riding, and I think the jockey change will be good for this horse. Very sharp work on 5/31 at Belmont, a track he clearly likes.
Exotics - I will probably use Uptowncharlybrown, Fly Down and Game on Dude in my exotics.
Good luck today!