May 14 2010
Preakness Stakes 135
For some reason I don’t completely understand, I’m not all that excited about the Preakness this year. After all, Calvin Borel has told the world that he’s winning the Triple Crown this year, so we all should just head to the window and play Super Saver. Handicapping done.
Or not.
This group of three year olds would not (at this point anyway) be much to write home about in terms of quality. A total of three horses in the field have won Grade 1 races. Lookin At Lucky, Super Saver, and Dublin are the qualifiers, yet the Derby winner is the only one that that has done so as a three year old (in the Derby). If that weren’t sad enough, only the same total of three horses in this race have even managed to run a 100 Beyer. Jackson Bend, Super Saver, and Paddy O’Prado are those qualifiers. Jackson Bend hasn’t done it yet at three, and Super Saver and Paddy O’Prado both did it in the Derby.
The quality of this field seems to stick out, and it’s going to be hard to overlook them even with some new shooters in the mix.
Lookin At Lucky – Well, he was my Derby pick, but only because I couldn’t believe the race set up so well for Ice Box and didn’t put him on top because I thought I missed something. I did of course, Ice Box got a terrible trip, and Lookin At Lucky’s trip was even worse. I still thought Lucky was the best horse in the field on the first Saturday in May, and the one hole did him in as many predicted. This time around he draws the middle of the gate, and gets a new rider to shake things up. Baffert was iffy on sending him here after the Derby, and the fact that he’s here leads me to believe we’ll see a better effort here.
Super Saver – The Derby winner certainly belongs here, and Borel pulled off another one of his miracle trips to get the roses. Despite his fondness for Churchill, Borel can find his way around Pimlico, having won last years edition with super-filly Rachel Alexandra. There isn’t as much speed in the race today, but Super Saver has proven he can win near or on the lead.
Paddy O’Prado – This guy killed me on Derby Day … but not because I didn’t like him. I played him in my exacta box with Super Saver and Ice Box, but didn’t play him in the trifecta. Ouch. He has proven to be a runner in the slop, on the turf and on Poly. Now it’s time to see if he can run on fast dirt. His works on fast tracks have just been so-so, which is why I didn’t put him on top. Desormeaux figures to ride a top notch race to dispel the criticism for his Derby finish, which many think cost Paddy second.
All – After the top three, I probably like Dublin and Jackson Bend most, but I think in my Supers, I’m just going to hit the ‘all’ button and hope for a bomb.
Best of luck tomorrow and safe trips for all.