May 01 2010
Kentucky Derby 136
Well, last year was a bust, as one of my throw outs came home the winner. As the old saying goes, if at first you don’t succeed, try, try, again.
Unfortunately for many, the likely best three year old at this point in the year isn’t running. Eskendereya is out with an injury. It also didn’t help the next two best three year olds drew the inside and outside posts. Lookin At Lucky and Sidney’s Candy will have much to overcome on Saturday. This Derby is even more of a wide-open affair than normal. So what’s a handicapper to do?
Punt?
OK, I know you won’t let me get away with that, so here are my darts thrown at the board.
Lookin At Lucky - The one hole stinks. Lucky was anything but that at the draw, but at least he has a running style that will allow him to be in the race despite the bad post draw. Sidney’s Candy is one of the speedballs, and coming from the 20 post pretty much kills his chances, but Lucky at least has a chance with a good trip. Don’t get me wrong, Gomez has a challenge on his hands and he’s going to have to ride a better race than he did in the Santa Anita Derby to win. He’s the only multiple Grade I winner in the field, and had some trouble in his only two defeats. Bullet work in the mud on 4/26. On the down side, he could be over-bet, but put him in the middle of the gate and he probably wins easy so I’m going to pray for a good trip.
Ice Box – I’m sure I’m not the first person to notice the abundance of speed in this year’s edition of the Run For The Roses. There are probably more potential front runners in the race this year than there have been in a long time. Logic (and a quick spin through the DRF) tells me that there are few editions of the Derby that have set up this well for a horse. If the race runs true to what is in the past performances, then there can be no other winner. He even threw in a bullet work in the slop at CD on 4/23. It’s too perfect in fact, so I couldn’t place him on top … I must be missing something.
Noble’s Promise - OK, I know his breeding says he can’t go this far, and he had the lung infection, yada, yada, yada. I know Ken McPeek and like what he has been saying about his horse. He talked the same way about Sarava before the Belmont, and guess what happened? IF he really can get the distance, he’s going to be right there at the wire. Here’s the kicker. He has the highest Tomlinson number for wet tracks in the entire field.
Devil May Care - The lone filly in the race is one of only two horses in the field that has managed to run a 100 Beyer at three (Sidney’s Candy being the other). She is one for one on an off track, and worked sharply in the slop on 4/24. It will take a big effort from her against the boys for the first time, and she’ll have to have her head on straight. She’s in with a chance.
Backtalk – my longshot play. Two for two at Churchill, and two for two on an off track. His sire, Smarty Jones, won the Derby on on off track. Toss the IL Derby and keep in your exotics.
After last year’s results, I’m not providing a list of horses that I could bet with other people’s money this year. Obviously the winner made that list in Derby 135, and another nominee, Summer Bird, turned into a pretty nice colt too … 