Breaking from the Gate

Many moons ago on one of my websites far, far, away, I used to handicap the major stakes races each weekend. I haven’t done it for a few years, but figured since this year’s Kentucky Derby looks to be a wide open affair maybe it was time to jump back in.

If the track is ‘good’ or ‘fast’ then I will be using these four in most of my tickets:

Papa Clem - He would have been overwhelming top choice in this wide-open event but he has looked less than stellar at Churchill in the morning. He’s proven he can make the move from poly to dirt, and beat what was everyone’s top horse before he withdrew from the Derby in Old Fashioned in the Arkansas Derby (G2). I still like his chances, but less so than I did a week ago.

Chocolate Candy - If Pioneerof the Nile wasn’t in California, this guy might be sitting on a six race winning streak. He’s also improved every race during that time. If you like Pioneerof the Nile, you should be using him here too.

Hold Me Back - Certainly has the breeding to get the distance, and from all reports out of Churchill has looked great during training hours. I love hearing about the horses doing well in the mornings, as it has led me to several winners over the years. I also like that he is a closer, as I am seeing several speedy types in this race. If he get’s a clean trip look out.

Mr. Hot Stuff - I actually played him in Future Pool #3, so I’m not just jumping on the bandwagon. Not sure if he can win, but he will factor in the exotics if he’s settled down since arriving at Churchill Downs.

If there ends up being an ‘off’ track then these two will factor heavily:

Desert Party - Might be the Shiek’s best chance to capture the roses. Won the Sanford (G2) in the mud last year at Saratoga. Beaten as the favorite in the UAE Derby, but was trying to close into a speed favoring track. Might even be OK on a fast track, but I like him a lot more if the track is wet.

Freisan Fire - logic tells me that it’s just too long between races for him. Even longer than Hard Spun, who ended up second. He might hit the board on a dry track, but don’t leave him off your tickets if the track is wet. He ran great in the slop in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and is coming into the race off a nice work at Churchill on 4/27.

What about the favorites?

I Want Revenge - certainly good enough to win, but I’m taking a stand against because I think he will bounce off the two races at Aqueduct, and he didn’t face much there after leaving California so he wouldn’t have to hook Pioneerof The Nile anymore. I think he will be over-bet.

Pioneerof The Nile - has never run on dirt, and has two average (compared to the other contenders) works at Churchill (11/26 on 4/27, and 4/19 on 4/21). Contrast that to his works in California where he had three bullet works in his last four (and was second in the other). He will have to prove me wrong.

Throw outs:

Sorry to the connections, but I can’t play any of these even with someone else’s money.

Advice, Atomic Rain, Dunkirk, Flying Private, Join in the Dance, Mine That Bird, Nowhere to Hide, Summer Bird.

So there you have it. Good luck on Saturday, and ‘let your conscience be your guide’.

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