Have been reading Mary Jean Wall’s excellent book, “How Kentucky Became Southern” which is full of references to the history of racing in New York in addition to its interesting look at Kentucky. Today marks the 143rd running of the Belmont Stakes, and although there is no Triple Crown on the line, it’s still a very interesting race.
It’s being billed as the ‘rubber match’ between the Derby and Preakness winners, Animal Kingdom and Shakleford, but I’m thinking there is an upset brewing today.
Stay Thirsty – gets my top choice today in a major upset. I’m throwing out his Derby, and think he benefits from the time off. Has looked very sharp in training over the Belmont strip, and I like his pedigree for getting the mile and a half. I’m sure he’s relishing in being home, and the likely track condition after the overnight rain won’t hurt him as much as some others.
Shakleford – Was my Derby pick (where I bet) and not my Preakness pick (where he won). Race sets up very well for him today, and he should have no trouble controlling the pace. Not worried about him getting the distance if he can control the pace, but am a bit worried that he regresses off the big effort in Baltimore. Think he still hits the board even if things don’t go perfectly, but you have to like a horse that wants the lead on a muddy day and could come back clean.
Master of Hounds – did a nice job of weaving through traffic in the Derby to get up for 5th, but I still was a bit disappointed in that placing. Was expecting a little more out of him. Smaller field makes that task a little easier here and the fact that O’Brien shipped him back speaks volumes.
Animal Kingdom – a lot of my friends were touting this guy on Derby Day and I just didn’t see it. Still don’t for that matter, but he certainly was the real deal that day. Velazquez waited too long in the Preakness, but I’m not sure that would have made a difference three weeks ago. I still think he hits the board today, but if dirt was a new experience and he didn’t like getting hit with it at Pimlico, how’s he going to handle mud?
Longshot Specials – Mucho Macho Man benefits from a rider change and had a huge workout at Belmont leading up to the race. Ruler on Ice and Monzon both have some off track form, so you might want to consider in your Exotics.
A bit late with my traditional Triple Crown picks this time, having spent most of this week in Oregon getting the license for Premier Turf Club renewed. Busy week, but thanks to the ORC for granting us a five year license.
This edition of the Preakness seems a bit boring, as most of them do when a relative longshot wins the Derby. Interesting in that this time around the Derby winner is actually favored. Looking at recent history, you’d see horses like Mine That Bird, Giacomo and Charismatic going off as no better than third choice. You’d have to go back to War Emblem to see a similar move.
So what happens today?
Animal Kingdom – Taking the War Emblem angle to heart (see above), as he ran another big race to take the Preakness. Trainer says the colt is doing well since the Derby, and I actually think his Derby score was better than some people give him credit for. Hate betting chalk, but he looks the part and his running style means the 11 post shouldn’t hurt him too much.
Mucho Macho Man – Liked his third place finish in the Derby and expect him to factor in again today. He closed nicely in the Derby despite some traffic problems and drifting a bit in the stretch. If he has a little better trip today, he could pull off the upset.
Dance City – New to the dance (no pun intended), by virtue of not having enough earnings to run in Kentucky. The Pletcher trainee ran big in the Arkansas Derby (finishing 3rd) and should be fresh today. Would have moved him up in the order except past history indicates it’s tough to win the Preakness having not started in Kentucky.
Dialed In – Is running for a lot of money today … $5.5 million in bonus money to be exact. Favorite in the Derby didn’t have things go his way from a pace scenario, however champions should be able to overcome it. He’s probably the most talented 3YO in training (until Uncle Mo returns anyway). I mentioned his speed figure pattern in my Derby post. If he continues to follow it, then he runs great today. Would like to see him live up to his reputation. we shall see.
Others to consider:
Flashpoint – lots of speed in this race today, which doesn’t bode well for this guy. Having said that, he is the speed of the speed in the Preakness, and he could steal it if left alone as Shackleford was in the Derby. Could hang on for some of the exotics.
Sway Away – if you like Dance City, put this guy in your exotics. Another who missed the Derby on earnings, with a stronger showing in Arkansas than might be readily apparent.
This, by all accounts, is a strange and somewhat disappointing Kentucky Derby 137. Many of this year’s top three year olds did not make the race, and it’s left a rather undistinguished field of (now) 19 horses going postward with the defection of Uncle Mo after the draw.
Still, sometimes that makes for an intriguing betting race, and we certainly have that this year.
The contenders:
Shackleford - Going with a relative longshot as my top pick this year. Dale Romans has this colt progressing nicely, and he has seemed to thrive under the Twin Spires with two bullet works since arriving from Florida. I am hoping Castanon can keep him out of an insane speed dual with Comma To The Top, since he is breaking from the 14 post. Throw out the Fountain of Youth, and you’ll find a nice body of work, including a win over the track. Lukewarm top choice.
Archarcharch - This fellow would likely have been my top choice, if not for drawing post one. He’s lucky in that hes not a speedball, so as long as veteran jockey Jon Court can keep him out of trouble in the first few jumps he should be OK. Still it’s going to be a lot of traffic to navigate to get the roses. His Arkansas Derby was a great prep, and a nice bullet 5 furlong work on 4/29 shows him to still be in top form. His work pattern leading up to the Arkansas Derby was a duplicate of things now. Sharp bullet work followed by a slow, almost leisurely blowout. I also like that he’s been steadily getting better in his speed figures.
Dialed In – The lightly raced, but likely favorite certainly fits with this bunch, but can he get it done?. He likes to close, but appears to have the ability to get in the mix earlier if necessary which I think would help him here. Florida Derby win was enough to give Nick Zito a heart attack, but a well timed ride by Julian Leparoux got the money. He’s also got a win over the Churchill Downs track. The only drawback I see is looking at his BRIS speed figures. 89|104|98|101. If he holds to the pattern and regresses, he won’t get it done today.
Others to keep on the radar screen:
Comma To The Top – Am thinking the Miller trainee is not getting the love he deserves. Clearly the most accomplished in the field (6 wins), and plenty of speed to burn. Do not leave this guy out of your exotics. Likely to hang on for a piece, and could just steal it if no one goes with him early.
Twinspired - Love the jock change to Mike Smith, who won the Derby from the 10 hole with Giacomo. I wish he had more dirt form to go by, but I did like what I saw on the Poly at Keeneland. Could get a piece.
Nehro - Ran a bang-up race in the Arkansas Derby but is still eligible for an ‘a other than’. Will be overbet, and the 19 hole doesn’t help his changes. If he grows up today, he’ll be in the mix.
As I have mentioned before, I’m a big fan of Larry Winget, and he’s convinced me of the benefits of continuing to learn by reading (or listening to) the wisdom of successful people. Partly because of that, I’m a business book hound. It seems like I have a copy of some book relating to business, finance or customer service in my briefcase or on my nightstand at all times.
On the customer service side, there is no better teacher than Nordstroms. If you don’t have a ‘Nordies’ nearby, I actually feel a bit sorry for you. They are without question one of the best retailers in the world, and in many ways are the model for how customers should be treated here in the United States. I recently picked up my old and beat up copy of ‘The Nordstom Way’ and despite having been written in 1995, much of the information contained in the book is as valid today as it was back then.
So now you are thinking, “How are you going to relate retail sales to the racing industry?” Funny you should ask.
The author included a quote from Howard Davidowitz which appeared in Women’s Wear Daily. The quote simply stated:
“Retailing is a mature industry. In a mature industry the consumer becomes the boss. They will tolerate nothing but excellence – there will be choices everywhere.”
Sounds a little like it should apply to the racing industry, only the racing industry has been very slow to recognize it.
One of the things that Nordstom’s is great at is that they empower their employees to do whatever it takes to help the customer. It doesn’t take a manager to get things done, the front line employees have the power to use their best judgment to meet and exceed the customer’s needs. I actually read ‘The Nordstom Way’ before heading to Ohio to launch AmericaTab, and made this very principle the key to our customer service department. Our customer service agents were given a great deal of latitude to help solve our customer’s problems, and I believe it’s the key reason reason that AmericaTab was so well regarded by its customers.
Our customer service manager, Laura Simmons, deserves a great deal of credit for keeping the philosophy of ‘customer first’ alive in our office, and for training our agents well. I always told her that even though after reviewing an incident I might ask her to handle things differently in the future, I would never hold it against her if a decision she made benefited the customer. We also staffed the customer service department higher than any other ADW at the time, and received frequent comments about how happy our customers were that they could actually ‘talk to a human being’ without being on hold all day.
One of the benefits of running an ADW is that you are constantly updating your technology infrastructure. It does make it easier in some cases to serve customers than in a large racing facility, or even an OTB. Having said that, no amount of technology can replace people, and having the culture of customer service in an organization. Providing exceptional service ALWAYS starts at the top. Management has to embrace it, and demand it, or the employees that actually deal with the customers on the front lines will not be empowered to do their best and the customers will ultimately suffer.
Nordstrom’s actually inverts the organizational structure with the customer on the top of the pyramid, followed by the sales staff and management is at the bottom. Perhaps that ‘upside-down’ thinking needs to find its place into the racing business.
The final leg of the 2010 Triple Crown is finally here, as a field of 12 will go postward in the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes. Much like the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont (on paper at least) sets up perfectly for one horse, who of course also isn’t really the best horse in the field. In the Derby the race set up perfectly for Ice Box, who really wasn’t the best horse in the race. That honor went to Lookin at Lucky, who went on to win the Preakness.
So what does that mean for today? For me, it means trust your instincts and take the horse that the race sets up for. Ice Box nearly won the Derby, and but for a bad trip probably does.
First Dude - The only real speed in the field which makes him very dangerous today. He nearly took the Preakness field wire-to-wire, and despite looking done at the 3/16th’s pole, he was very game to the wire against what I believe is the best 3YO in training (Lookin at Lucky). He’s going to be far more attractive on the tote board than the likely favorite (Ice Box) which is another reason to like him. No question it was a tough race, and the only knock might be that it took too much out of him. He’s reportedly been doing well leading up to the race, and I think Romans was smart to get him to Belmont early, so I think he’ll run big again today.
Ice Box - My real ‘top choice’ in the Derby because I thought the race set up perfectly for him. I played him straight and in most of my exotic tickets. Rewarded me handsomely despite a bad trip relegating him to the place position. I think he’s probably the best horse in the Belmont, and he will likely be bet like it. No question the extra time off helps his chances, and he will be rolling late. He does need someone to challenge First Dude early, and if he gets someone to do it, he will be hard to beat.
Drosselmeyer - I’m taking a little bit of a flyer here, but am intrigued by the reuniting of one of the top teams in the history of New York racing, trainer Bill Mott and jockey Mike Smith. He was the overwhelming favorite in the Dwyer (the local prep) but finished second to Fly Down. He was in tight quarters with 3/8ths to go, and not sure he could have gotten to the winner after breaking poorly too. Desormeaux has had a bit of a rough go recently in terms of his riding, and I think the jockey change will be good for this horse. Very sharp work on 5/31 at Belmont, a track he clearly likes.
Exotics - I will probably use Uptowncharlybrown, Fly Down and Game on Dude in my exotics.
For some reason I don’t completely understand, I’m not all that excited about the Preakness this year. After all, Calvin Borel has told the world that he’s winning the Triple Crown this year, so we all should just head to the window and play Super Saver. Handicapping done.
Or not.
This group of three year olds would not (at this point anyway) be much to write home about in terms of quality. A total of three horses in the field have won Grade 1 races. Lookin At Lucky, Super Saver, and Dublin are the qualifiers, yet the Derby winner is the only one that that has done so as a three year old (in the Derby). If that weren’t sad enough, only the same total of three horses in this race have even managed to run a 100 Beyer. Jackson Bend, Super Saver, and Paddy O’Prado are those qualifiers. Jackson Bend hasn’t done it yet at three, and Super Saver and Paddy O’Prado both did it in the Derby.
The quality of this field seems to stick out, and it’s going to be hard to overlook them even with some new shooters in the mix.
Lookin At Lucky – Well, he was my Derby pick, but only because I couldn’t believe the race set up so well for Ice Box and didn’t put him on top because I thought I missed something. I did of course, Ice Box got a terrible trip, and Lookin At Lucky’s trip was even worse. I still thought Lucky was the best horse in the field on the first Saturday in May, and the one hole did him in as many predicted. This time around he draws the middle of the gate, and gets a new rider to shake things up. Baffert was iffy on sending him here after the Derby, and the fact that he’s here leads me to believe we’ll see a better effort here.
Super Saver – The Derby winner certainly belongs here, and Borel pulled off another one of his miracle trips to get the roses. Despite his fondness for Churchill, Borel can find his way around Pimlico, having won last years edition with super-filly Rachel Alexandra. There isn’t as much speed in the race today, but Super Saver has proven he can win near or on the lead.
Paddy O’Prado – This guy killed me on Derby Day … but not because I didn’t like him. I played him in my exacta box with Super Saver and Ice Box, but didn’t play him in the trifecta. Ouch. He has proven to be a runner in the slop, on the turf and on Poly. Now it’s time to see if he can run on fast dirt. His works on fast tracks have just been so-so, which is why I didn’t put him on top. Desormeaux figures to ride a top notch race to dispel the criticism for his Derby finish, which many think cost Paddy second.
All – After the top three, I probably like Dublin and Jackson Bend most, but I think in my Supers, I’m just going to hit the ‘all’ button and hope for a bomb.
Well, last year was a bust, as one of my throw outs came home the winner. As the old saying goes, if at first you don’t succeed, try, try, again.
Unfortunately for many, the likely best three year old at this point in the year isn’t running. Eskendereya is out with an injury. It also didn’t help the next two best three year olds drew the inside and outside posts. Lookin At Lucky and Sidney’s Candy will have much to overcome on Saturday. This Derby is even more of a wide-open affair than normal. So what’s a handicapper to do?
Punt?
OK, I know you won’t let me get away with that, so here are my darts thrown at the board.
Lookin At Lucky - The one hole stinks. Lucky was anything but that at the draw, but at least he has a running style that will allow him to be in the race despite the bad post draw. Sidney’s Candy is one of the speedballs, and coming from the 20 post pretty much kills his chances, but Lucky at least has a chance with a good trip. Don’t get me wrong, Gomez has a challenge on his hands and he’s going to have to ride a better race than he did in the Santa Anita Derby to win. He’s the only multiple Grade I winner in the field, and had some trouble in his only two defeats. Bullet work in the mud on 4/26. On the down side, he could be over-bet, but put him in the middle of the gate and he probably wins easy so I’m going to pray for a good trip.
Ice Box – I’m sure I’m not the first person to notice the abundance of speed in this year’s edition of the Run For The Roses. There are probably more potential front runners in the race this year than there have been in a long time. Logic (and a quick spin through the DRF) tells me that there are few editions of the Derby that have set up this well for a horse. If the race runs true to what is in the past performances, then there can be no other winner. He even threw in a bullet work in the slop at CD on 4/23. It’s too perfect in fact, so I couldn’t place him on top … I must be missing something.
Noble’s Promise - OK, I know his breeding says he can’t go this far, and he had the lung infection, yada, yada, yada. I know Ken McPeek and like what he has been saying about his horse. He talked the same way about Sarava before the Belmont, and guess what happened? IF he really can get the distance, he’s going to be right there at the wire. Here’s the kicker. He has the highest Tomlinson number for wet tracks in the entire field.
Devil May Care - The lone filly in the race is one of only two horses in the field that has managed to run a 100 Beyer at three (Sidney’s Candy being the other). She is one for one on an off track, and worked sharply in the slop on 4/24. It will take a big effort from her against the boys for the first time, and she’ll have to have her head on straight. She’s in with a chance.
Backtalk – my longshot play. Two for two at Churchill, and two for two on an off track. His sire, Smarty Jones, won the Derby on on off track. Toss the IL Derby and keep in your exotics.
After last year’s results, I’m not providing a list of horses that I could bet with other people’s money this year. Obviously the winner made that list in Derby 135, and another nominee, Summer Bird, turned into a pretty nice colt too …
An interesting story came out yesterday on AOL’s new Daily Finance website which dealt with ‘High Speed’ trading in the stock market. The parallels to what is called ‘computer robotic wagering’ in pari-mutuel wagering were easy to see, and some on Wall Street use the same arguments that those in the racing business use to condemn the practice.
“There’s also the concern that high speed trading gives an unfair advantage to high-rollers and major institutional clients who can afford the expensive, high-tech setups needed to participate.”
Much like the current CRW players have on the pari-mutuel side, high speed traders are also concerned about how the industry reacts to their business model and what future rules and regulations they might face moving forward.
“Traders are uncertain about what type of new regulations may come from the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission or Congress. The biggest fear is that regulators could potentially move to ban high frequency trading altogether. Less dramatic, there could be restrictions on trading volumes or new taxes being levied on the industry to rein in profits.”
Many believe in the old addage from Lawrence Garfield in Other People’s Money however. “You can change all the laws you want. You can’t stop the game. I’ll still be here. I adapt.”
“Faced with new regulations, Gray Long, chief information officer for Trading Cross Connects, said that technology and innovation would immediately be implemented to find “work-arounds.” He suggested that as soon as any new regulation is enacted, new algorithms could be created to adapt and find trading strategies that would be able to help firms profit in the new environment.”
The most interesting parallel however is the realization that it’s not just about the numbers and arbitrage. As with any good CRW system in pari-mutuel wagering, high speed trading requires long term strategy.
“But in most cases, a long-term business strategy will win the day, he (Allen Zaydlin, CEO of electronic trading software firm InfoReach) said, because no matter how many thousands you spend creating the infrastructure needed to compete with speed, ultimately, “somebody comes with newer, more modern and optimized equipment, and you have to rethink your strategy.”
Give more people the same tools and the ‘edge’ goes away. As more and more people try to get into the arena, the more important part of the equation will be the ability to optimize the underlying logic making it run. In pari-mutuel wagering, it means that to optimize the ROI, the person using CRW has to become a better predictor of the outcome of the race. They must become a better handicapper.
The big question on the pari-mutuel side has always been “Is it fair?”
My response has always been yes.
Pari-mutuel wagering has always been one person wagering against everyone else in the pool. Anyone who plays with any frequency always tries to have some kind of edge over the rest of the players. You can’t beat the takeout without it. Some people can read past performances better. Some people use ‘The Sheets’. Some people know the trainer. Some get up in the morning and time their own workouts. Some people spend hours watching race replays. And yes, some people use computer software to help them wager. There is even simple software available to anyone, like DRF’s Formulator, and the conditional wagering systems available on a few of the ADW platforms (TwinSpires and Premier Turf Club for example).
There are many tools out there to enhance performance at the window for those that care to put in the time, effort, and capital to use them. Unfortunately, most people don’t want to do it, and therefore believe that it’s not fair to them that there are people out there that do.
I want everyone to know that I am a fan of Larry Winget. For those of you that don’t know who he is, I’d like to call him a motivational speaker, but he’d probably give me a tongue lashing for calling him that, so I’ll instead use his own title to describe him … The Pitbull of Personal Development.
I first ran across Larry one day when I was on the road and happened to be sitting in the Detroit Airport. I was stuck there due to a flight delay and had finished the book I always bring with me when I travel. Bored, I headed to the bookstore in the main concourse, and there in the window was a books with the following title screaming out at me (yes, some books can scream) …
“Shut Up, Stop Whining and Get A Life – A Kick-Butt Approach To A Better Life”.
How can you not pick up a book with that for a title?
All I can say is that if you haven’t read it, run, don’t walk to the nearest bookstore, head to Amazon, or find it at the library. I’m not going to go into all the details, but it’s a page turner, and an eye opener. He really cuts to the chase. He has several other books with equally provocative titles (“It’s Called WORK For A Reason”, “You’re Broke Because You Want To Be”, “People Are Idiots And I Can Prove It!” among others).
But I’m not here to sell you on a book(s).
You can also find Larry on YouTube, and as good as his books are, hearing him deliver his message in person (or on video) is something not to be missed. And that is why I am posting today. Before you go any further, please watch this …
Every racetrack Owner, ADW Owner, OTB Owner, General Manager, Board Member, employee of all of the Alphabet Soup of racing organizations, horseman … well you get the idea … should watch this. It’s simple, and cuts right to the point.
I was very fortunate to have a father that is a great racetrack executive to learn from (and boy have I learned a lot). I remember the first time I attended the RTIP Conference in Tucson very clearly to this day. It was December of 1984, and my father was about four months into his first stint as the GM of Canterbury Downs. He was asked to give a speech at the conference, and during that speech he talked about how Canterbury was going to be a customer focused company. Now for a lot of us that attend the various conferences each year, we are used to hearing grandiose plans and great ideas put forth in speeches … and then next year, the same things get talked about again, because nothing happened.
Except at Canterbury Downs.
When the track opened the following year, it was universally praised for having great customer service, even by the news writers that regularly didn’t have much nice to say (we all know how critics are). And the following year at the RTIP Conference my father gave another speech where he told everyone that Canterbury executed, and succeeded. He brought that message back to Canterbury Park with him in 1994, when the Sampson family (who had just bought the track) asked him to be the GM for the second time. Canterbury Park is still a fan-friendly place to this day, and although I am surely biased, I strongly believe that his influence is a big reason why.
I remember my first day at work after being named the GM of what at the time was OhioTab. I had spent my summer working at Canterbury as I had for the previous five years, and was flying back and forth to Ohio to help work on launching WinTicket.com. Charlie Ruma gave me a chance to run the operation after it launched in August of 2000. It was a big leap for me career-wise, and I have to thank him for taking a chance on me. Eventually, that little company became AmericaTab and got a lot bigger, and when it was not so little any more Churchill Downs bought it and its now TwinSpires.com.
From the start, I made sure that AmericaTab was a customer-focused company because of the lessons I had learned from my father. It manifested itself in many ways. We hired more customer service staff than other ADW’s that were handling five times our volume. If you look back at a lot of common features that are available at all the ADW’s now, you would have found a lot of them at AmericaTab first. Our betting platform was simple, worked on most PC and browser combinations, didn’t require software downloads, and was very easy to use. It was fast, and very reliable. We spent a lot of money trying to stay ahead of the curve on our hardware and bandwidth. We had (I believe) the best streaming video and race replay system, and the best handicapping data. We sent checks to our customers that wanted withdrawals from their accounts daily, and initiated online credit card processing and ACH transactions. I even had to fight a little to get rid of the wagering fee that was being charged when I got there, and we spent a long time agonizing about charging for video or services before just putting in a small wagering minimum instead.
I could go on, but we tried very hard to make sure in everything we did that the customer came first. Were we always successful? Unfortunately no, but I heard and saw enough positive reviews from our customers (and significantly fewer negative reviews) to let me know we were doing a lot of things better than our competition.
I could also tell by how fast our business grew.
The Customer Service staff lead by Laura Simmons was a big part of AmericaTab’s success, and other than from me, they probably never got the credit they deserved. I do know that without them and their tireless efforts AmericaTab would not have become the great company it was.
So now I’ve tooted my own horn, my father’s, and Laura’s. But that’s not why I’m posting today either.
If you talk to the bulk of the knowledgeable customers (the gamblers for those that haven’t figured that out yet), they are pretty universal in what makes them happy. They also are not shy about telling you what makes them unhappy if you take the time to listen.
1) They think takeout is too high.
2) They question the integrity of the pools.
3) They believe drugs are rampant in the sport.
4) They hate being held hostage to tracks, groups of tracks, or the horsemen. They believe they should be able to wager on whatever track/pool they want to … through their preferred outlet for wagering.
Now there are countless other smaller things they would love to see too, but these are the big four for most knowledgeable players. You know the 80-20 rule? Guess where 80% of the handle is coming from? Yep, the customers that care about the big four.
Racing needs to remember who the customer really is, and get to work on these things first.
Oh, and If you didn’t watch the YouTube clip, please go back and watch it now … especially if you have a title at work ….
Breaking from the Gate
contains the random musings of Todd Bowker, who began his career in racing by sweeping floors and doing laundry in the Jock's Room at Ak-Sar-Ben in 1981.
